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Pre-Mortem Analysis
Imagine your decision failed a year from now and write the reasons today — preventing 70% of catastrophes.
Goal
Surface a key decision's failure modes before execution through an imaginative exercise that overrides optimism bias.
Steps
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1
Write the decision you're about to make in one specific sentence ("I'll accept this job offer", "I'll launch in March").
Expected Outcome
Immediate
You uncover 2-4 risks that were obvious but invisible to you, and modify the plan with safety margin.
Evidence base
School: Behavioral Decision Theory
Founders: Gary Klein · Daniel Kahneman (2007)
Coined by psychologist Gary Klein in Harvard Business Review (2007). Daniel Kahneman proved it raises accuracy of identifying failure causes by 30%. Uses "Prospective Hindsight".
Keywords
Frequently asked questions
How long does "Pre-Mortem Analysis" take?
This exercise takes about 30 minutes, practiced solo in a Written reflection format.
When will I notice the effect of "Pre-Mortem Analysis"?
You uncover 2-4 risks that were obvious but invisible to you, and modify the plan with safety margin. In the short term: After applying pre-mortems to 5 decisions, "nasty surprise" rate drops 60-70%.
Is "Pre-Mortem Analysis" evidence-based?
Yes — it draws on Behavioral Decision Theory (Gary Klein, Daniel Kahneman (2007)). Coined by psychologist Gary Klein in Harvard Business Review (2007). Daniel Kahneman proved it raises accuracy of identifying failure causes by 30%. Uses "Prospective Hindsight".
Is "Pre-Mortem Analysis" suitable for beginners?
Its difficulty level is: Intermediate. No external tools required — it can be practiced directly inside the app.
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