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3-Scenario Planning
Craft three plausible futures (optimistic, base, hard) and test your decisions against each.
Goal
Build strategic resilience by making decisions that don't collapse under any of three diverging scenarios.
Steps
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1
State the decision in one precise sentence (e.g., "Launch in the Gulf in Q3").
Expected Outcome
Immediate
The team uncovers 2-4 hidden assumptions previously treated as givens.
Evidence base
School: Strategic Foresight / Shell Scenario Planning
Founders: Pierre Wack · Peter Schwartz (1971)
Developed by Pierre Wack at Shell in the 60s-70s. Helped Shell anticipate the 1973 oil shock. Evolved at Global Business Network with Peter Schwartz.
Keywords
Frequently asked questions
How long does "3-Scenario Planning" take?
This exercise takes about 45 minutes, practiced in a group in a Written reflection format.
When will I notice the effect of "3-Scenario Planning"?
The team uncovers 2-4 hidden assumptions previously treated as givens. In the short term: Within a month, the plan is amended to be stronger in the hard scenario without sacrificing the base.
Is "3-Scenario Planning" evidence-based?
Yes — it draws on Strategic Foresight / Shell Scenario Planning (Pierre Wack, Peter Schwartz (1971)). Developed by Pierre Wack at Shell in the 60s-70s. Helped Shell anticipate the 1973 oil shock. Evolved at Global Business Network with Peter Schwartz.
Is "3-Scenario Planning" suitable for beginners?
Its difficulty level is: Advanced. No external tools required — it can be practiced directly inside the app.
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