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Scenario Planning: 4 Possible Futures

Instead of predicting one future, write 4 radically different scenarios. Your plan survives all four.

180 min Advanced

Goal

Beat single-path (linear) forecasting for multi-path thinking. This gave Shell the edge predicting 1973 oil crisis.

Steps

1

Pick an upcoming strategic decision (market entry, investment, allocation). Needs 5-10 yr horizon.

6 more steps locked

Expected Outcome

Immediate

You realize your current plan works in only 1 of 4 scenarios. Radio-level fragility.

Evidence base

School: Scenario Planning

Founders: Pierre Wack · Royal Dutch Shell · Peter Schwartz (1971)

Pierre Wack developed at Shell 1971. Predicted 1973 oil crisis, gave Shell major edge. Peter Schwartz popularized in "The Art of the Long View" (1991).

Frequently asked questions

How long does "Scenario Planning: 4 Possible Futures" take?

This exercise takes about 180 minutes, practiced in a group in a Creative format.

When will I notice the effect of "Scenario Planning: 4 Possible Futures"?

You realize your current plan works in only 1 of 4 scenarios. Radio-level fragility. In the short term: Within a quarter, you develop "robust actions" working regardless of future. Strategic resilience.

Is "Scenario Planning: 4 Possible Futures" evidence-based?

Yes — it draws on Scenario Planning (Pierre Wack, Royal Dutch Shell, Peter Schwartz (1971)). Pierre Wack developed at Shell 1971. Predicted 1973 oil crisis, gave Shell major edge. Peter Schwartz popularized in "The Art of the Long View" (1991).

Is "Scenario Planning: 4 Possible Futures" suitable for beginners?

Its difficulty level is: Advanced. No external tools required — it can be practiced directly inside the app.

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