Public preview
Decision Journal
Per big leadership decision: your mental state, info, prediction, actual outcome. Learn from mistakes.
Goal
Build objective memory of your decisions, reducing hindsight bias ("I knew it would work").
Steps
-
1
Open a file (Notion, Notes). For each big decision, add a new card.
Expected Outcome
Immediate
You discover many "decisive" decisions were less smart than you remember. Humility emerges.
Evidence base
School: Superforecasting / Calibrated Decision Making
Founders: Philip Tetlock · Annie Duke (2015)
Coined by Philip Tetlock (UPenn) in "Superforecasting" (2015) on 25 years of research. Documented by Annie Duke (poker champion) in "Thinking in Bets" (2018).
Keywords
Frequently asked questions
How long does "Decision Journal" take?
This exercise takes about 10 minutes, practiced solo in a Journaling format.
When will I notice the effect of "Decision Journal"?
You discover many "decisive" decisions were less smart than you remember. Humility emerges. In the short term: Within 3 quarters, you learn patterns of over-optimism/pessimism. Adjust decisions.
Is "Decision Journal" evidence-based?
Yes — it draws on Superforecasting / Calibrated Decision Making (Philip Tetlock, Annie Duke (2015)). Coined by Philip Tetlock (UPenn) in "Superforecasting" (2015) on 25 years of research. Documented by Annie Duke (poker champion) in "Thinking in Bets" (2018).
Is "Decision Journal" suitable for beginners?
Its difficulty level is: Beginner. No external tools required — it can be practiced directly inside the app.
Subscribe for full access
Subscribe to Plus for full access to this practice and the whole catalogue, or try first — free, no sign-in, no commitment.
7 complete practices (one per domain) are free forever, no sign-in.