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Mini Pre-Mortem for Leaders

15 min before a big decision: imagine it failed a year later, list 5 likely causes with mitigations.

15 min Intermediate

Goal

Beat optimism bias in leadership decisions via cheapest version of full pre-mortem.

Steps

1

Define decision. Frame precisely ("I launch X on Y with budget Z").

5 more steps locked

Expected Outcome

Immediate

You spot 2-3 risks not in your plan. Mitigations ready.

Evidence base

School: Naturalistic Decision Making

Founders: Gary Klein · Daniel Kahneman (2007)

Abbreviated from Gary Klein's full pre-mortem. Sufficient for individual decisions. Confirmed by Kahneman in "Thinking, Fast and Slow".

Frequently asked questions

How long does "Mini Pre-Mortem for Leaders" take?

This exercise takes about 15 minutes, practiced solo in a Written reflection format.

When will I notice the effect of "Mini Pre-Mortem for Leaders"?

You spot 2-3 risks not in your plan. Mitigations ready. In the short term: Within 3 months, "post-decision surprises" drop 40%.

Is "Mini Pre-Mortem for Leaders" evidence-based?

Yes — it draws on Naturalistic Decision Making (Gary Klein, Daniel Kahneman (2007)). Abbreviated from Gary Klein's full pre-mortem. Sufficient for individual decisions. Confirmed by Kahneman in "Thinking, Fast and Slow".

Is "Mini Pre-Mortem for Leaders" suitable for beginners?

Its difficulty level is: Intermediate. No external tools required — it can be practiced directly inside the app.

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