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Worst-Best-Expected Scenario Analysis

Each big decision: 3 numeric scenarios, not "hope for the best".

30 min Intermediate

Goal

Replace random optimism with an outcome range built on explicit assumptions.

Steps

1

Define the decision/investment.

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Expected Outcome

Immediate

You find "worst" is bigger than thought — alters the decision.

Evidence base

School: Decision Analysis / Sensitivity Analysis

Founders: Howard Raiffa · Ralph Keeney (1976)

Raiffa (Harvard) & Keeney — Decisions With Multiple Objectives (1976); founded Decision Analysis as field.

Frequently asked questions

How long does "Worst-Best-Expected Scenario Analysis" take?

This exercise takes about 30 minutes, practiced solo in a Written reflection format.

When will I notice the effect of "Worst-Best-Expected Scenario Analysis"?

You find "worst" is bigger than thought — alters the decision. In the short term: After 3 decisions, negative surprises drop sharply.

Is "Worst-Best-Expected Scenario Analysis" evidence-based?

Yes — it draws on Decision Analysis / Sensitivity Analysis (Howard Raiffa, Ralph Keeney (1976)). Raiffa (Harvard) & Keeney — Decisions With Multiple Objectives (1976); founded Decision Analysis as field.

Is "Worst-Best-Expected Scenario Analysis" suitable for beginners?

Its difficulty level is: Intermediate. No external tools required — it can be practiced directly inside the app.

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