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Three-Point Estimation (PERT)

For each task estimate: optimistic, most-likely, pessimistic — then compute expected.

35 min Advanced

Goal

Replace deceiving single estimates with three-point ranges revealing uncertainty.

Steps

1

List 10-15 core tasks.

5 more steps locked

Expected Outcome

Immediate

You find 2 high-variance tasks — start them early.

Evidence base

School: PERT / US Navy Polaris

Founders: US Navy · Booz Allen Hamilton (1958)

Developed in Polaris program (US Navy + Booz Allen) 1958; standard in PMBOK as three-point.

Frequently asked questions

How long does "Three-Point Estimation (PERT)" take?

This exercise takes about 35 minutes, practiced solo in a Action format.

When will I notice the effect of "Three-Point Estimation (PERT)"?

You find 2 high-variance tasks — start them early. In the short term: After 2 projects, estimates land 70% close to actual vs 30%.

Is "Three-Point Estimation (PERT)" evidence-based?

Yes — it draws on PERT / US Navy Polaris (US Navy, Booz Allen Hamilton (1958)). Developed in Polaris program (US Navy + Booz Allen) 1958; standard in PMBOK as three-point.

Is "Three-Point Estimation (PERT)" suitable for beginners?

Its difficulty level is: Advanced. No external tools required — it can be practiced directly inside the app.

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