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Monthly Decision Journal

Log every important decision with your prediction; review monthly for calibration accuracy.

30 min Intermediate

Goal

Turn "intuition" into a measurable skill by comparing predictions with reality.

Steps

1

Each: date, description, success probability (% number).

4 more steps locked

Expected Outcome

Immediate

You start a personal database of decision quality.

Evidence base

School: Superforecasting

Founders: Philip Tetlock · Annie Duke (2015)

Tetlock — Superforecasting (2015) and GJP project; Annie Duke — Thinking in Bets (2018) on decision journals for learning.

Frequently asked questions

How long does "Monthly Decision Journal" take?

This exercise takes about 30 minutes, practiced solo in a Journaling format.

When will I notice the effect of "Monthly Decision Journal"?

You start a personal database of decision quality. In the short term: In 3 months, you find your bias pattern (e.g., optimistic on deadlines, pessimistic on budgets).

Is "Monthly Decision Journal" evidence-based?

Yes — it draws on Superforecasting (Philip Tetlock, Annie Duke (2015)). Tetlock — Superforecasting (2015) and GJP project; Annie Duke — Thinking in Bets (2018) on decision journals for learning.

Is "Monthly Decision Journal" suitable for beginners?

Its difficulty level is: Intermediate. No external tools required — it can be practiced directly inside the app.

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